By Scott McLaughlin/DFP Staff
It’s easy to look at tonight’s loss and say the season is over for the Terriers. Although there’s a chance it is, there are still some not-so-far-fetched scenarios that would land BU in the NCAA tournament.
The Terriers currently sit 17th in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) used to determine the 16-team NCAA field. One of the 16 spots will be reserved for the Atlantic Hockey champion, as that conference currently has no one in the top 16 but gets an automatic bid for its champion.
That leaves 15 spots to be divvied up among the big four conferences (CCHA, ECAC, Hockey East, WCHA). If you’re unfamiliar with the PWR, you’re probably asking yourself right now, “How the hell can the Terriers move from 17 into the top 15 if they don’t have any more games to play?” And my answer would be, “It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me either, but it can happen, and I’m about to show you how.”
Before I run through these scenarios, I just have to give credit to USCHO.com’s PairWise Predictor for letting me figure this out. I would never be able to figure any of it out on my own. College Hockey News has the same thing with their You Are The Committee tool.
Here is what’s left of each conference tournament, besides Atlantic Hockey. I haven’t found a scenario where anything that happens in Atlantic Hockey changes anything for BU, so I’m going to ignore that tourney unless I do. The number in parentheses is that team’s seeding among the remaining teams in its tournament (read: not its original seeding in the tournament).
CCHA
(1) Michigan vs. (4) Western Michigan
(2) Notre Dame vs. (3) Miami
ECAC
(1) Yale vs. (4) Colgate
(2) Dartmouth vs. (3) Cornell
Hockey East
(1) BC vs. (4) Northeastern
(2) UNH vs. (3) Merrimack
WCHA
(1) North Dakota vs. (4) Colorado College/(5) Alaska-Anchorage
(2) Denver vs. (3) Minnesota-Duluth/(6) Bemidji State
The WCHA likes to be different and have two play-in games before the semifinals. The CCHA and ECAC also have consolation games that DO count toward the PWR. The easiest way to do this is to assume the higher seed wins every game and then work from there to try and figure out what BU needs. Here’s what the higher seed winning every game gives us:
CCHA
Semifinal #1: Michigan beats Western Michigan
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame beats Miami
Championship: Michigan beats Notre Dame
Consolation: Miami beats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #1: Yale beats Colgate
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth beats Cornell
Championship: Yale beats Dartmouth
Consolation: Cornell beats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #1: BC beats Northeastern
Semifinal #2: UNH beats Merrimack
Championship: BC beats UNH
WCHA
Play-in #1: Colorado College beats Alaska-Anchorage
Play-in #2: Minnesota-Duluth beats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: North Dakota beats Colorado College
Semifinal #2: Denver beats Minnesota-Duluth
Championship: North Dakota beats Denver
Now, this scenario (all the higher seeds winning) does NOT get BU into the tournament. If this happens, the Terriers would finish 16th and be the last team out. So, straight chalk and BU’s out.
But as you can probably guess from the fact that they would be 16th in that scenario, it wouldn’t take a whole lot of upsets to get the Terriers in. That said, there is no scenario where only one upset gets BU in. There’s one scenario where two upsets would get BU in, though.
-If Dartmouth loses to Cornell and then also loses in the consolation game, BU would be the last team in.
That’s the easiest way for BU to get in, meaning the one that involves the fewest number of upsets. It’s worth noting that in that scenario, BU would need Western Michigan to lose both its games. BU can still get in with this scenario and a couple other upsets in other spots, but Western Michigan winning a game cannot be one of them. The Terriers would also need all the big-four tourney winners to be teams that are already in the top 15, meaning Cornell beating Yale in the championship, for instance, would knock BU out.
There are a few other scenarios that get BU in as well, but I’m getting tired and starting to drive myself crazy with the PairWise Predictor. Just know that if you’re a BU fan, you should be rooting against Dartmouth and Western Michigan and hoping no one outside the top 15 steals one of the big-four automatic berths.
I’ve also found scenarios where the following results can help BU:
-Colorado College loses to Alaska-Anchorage
-Northeastern beats BC, but then loses to UNH in the championship (Northeastern winning the championship would take away one of those 15 spots and knock BU out)
-UNH beats BC in the championship
And then there are some really crazy scenarios with a lot of upsets that somehow land BU in, too. One even involves Dartmouth winning the ECAC. But those are so unlikely (although certainly not impossible) that I won’t delve into them here.
So just to reiterate, here is what BU fans should be rooting for:
-Dartmouth to lose
-Western Michigan to lose
-No non-top-15 tournament winners in the big four conferences
Update: Commenter brass bonanza has found a scenario that gets BU in with only one upset. If all the higher seeds win, but UNH beats BC in the Hockey East championship game, the Terriers would be the last team in. So if you’re a BU fan, root for UNH over BC this weekend. It’s worth noting that the same scenario except with UNH beating Northeastern in the final does NOT get BU in.
This is worse than BU scoring two ENG late and still being down a goal. Put us out of our misery. WHY DO YOU MAKE US SUFFER???
Nah, it’s all OVAH…deal with it…
Looks like the poll can be updated now.
LOL at the 50% that were wrong.
Comment above makes no sense. Why would you not want BU to score 2 late goals and potentially be able to send it to overtime?
Because it’s a TEASE
If Andrew Glass played and Warso were kicked off the team, BU would be playing at the Garden this upcoming weekend.
How can this be considered a young team when Chris Connolly (a junior) is at a age when most students graduate from graduate school or established at a real job?
How many times was Connolly held back in elementary and high school?
There’s only one skating senior and 2/3 of the team are freshman and sophomores. Even Parker said this may be the youngest team he’s ever coached. You don’t determine how young a team is based off of one player dumbass.
If this is Parker’s youngest team then last year’s team was filled with seniors yet they still stunk up Agganis!
Next excuse…
They weren’t seniors last year … they had three juniors leave for NHL contracts: Shattenkirk, Bonino and Colby Cohen. They would have all been seniors this year, along with Colin Wilson.
How good would the team have been with them all still in the fold?
When you bring in pro prospects, you can’t expect them to stay all four years.
anyway, does anyone know the definitive situations whereby we do make the dance? seriously, no goofing here…exactly what has to happen?
I think BU actually does too good a job of recruiting. Like one person pointed out, we lost 3 Juniors last year to NHL contracts, whereas it seems that BC retains more of their upperclassmen year-to-year.
And to the last person who just commented…did you not read the article? It’s right there in clear, plain words what has to happen for BU to make the NCAA tourney.
Easiest scenario is for the favorites to win out in the AHA, HEA, WCHA, CCHA, and for Dartmouth to lose 2 games in the ECAC.
The reason BC retains more upperclassmen is because they recruit for the college game. They don’t judge their success off how many players they get to the NHL. Success is judged based on games they win and Conference and National titles they win.
BC seems to target small quick forwards. They lack size, so they stay in college longer. Gionta, Atkinson, and Gerbe come to mind.
Gerbe left after his junior year.
Colorado College loss to Alaska Anchorage HELPS Western Michigan more than it helps BU, so that though seemingly sensible WOULD NOT HELP TERRIER CAUSE.
I hear the PWR is the worst except all the others comparisons to Democracy, and with BU losing 2 of 3 at home I really dont have an argument for BU deserving to be in, but there is no way games from the first game of the season should count as much as a game at the end of the regular season with a reg season oonference title on the line. Their should definitely be worked into the formula something about how the games after Jan 1, particularly conference games, should have some added weight in comparison to games in early season tourneys.
Also, give the Beanpot credit for having Cajones to have a 3rd place game played to the end and count in the PWRs. The ECAC & the WCHA have the potential for consolation games to end in ties which historically can help a team but rarely hurt a team that gains one point in a weekend if is on the bubble. That is bogus.
Um, I am pretty sure though not positive Nathan Gerbe left after his junior season. And I am positive Ryan and Carlson left before the HE season even began to get those pro paychecks, so I dont really see how his holds water. Yip stayed thru senior year and is having a solid NHL career, so to is McCarthy, and of course Gilroy stayed till he was the median age of a NE player (25) thru his senior year and all three are having legit pro careers
The main reason why BU forwards leave early is that they have issues with Parker or they fail out. There have been numerous examples.
Anonymous said…
The main reason why BU forwards leave early is that they have issues with Parker or they fail out. There have been numerous examples.
Can you provide any?
Fail out? You mean academically or do you mean fail out as in they don’t mean Parker’s expectations/ rules?
A simple way to get BU in the tournament:
Every higher seeded team wins their game, except BC beats UNH. BU is the last team in. And there is some wiggle room with that, DU or NoDak can win, AHA appears irrelevant in this scenario, but UNH must win here, and this includes Dartmouth winning their first game.
Are you guys going to come out with an article on grading each player for the season.
I’d like to see that grading/summary article on each player too. Is that something you guys will do?
brass bonanza- I think you mean UNH beats BC, but you’re right- that gets BU in. Not sure how I missed such a simple scenario.
To the last two anonymous commenters- We’ll probably do something like that once their season is officially over.
The BU season is now officially OVAH!
That is actually not true good try though. It wont be officially over until Sunday at the earliest
I think it could officially be over Friday night if Western Michigan beats Michigan. I have yet to find a scenario where Western wins that game and BU still gets in.
Maybe BU could claim a moral victory for a very young team if they don’t get eliminated until Sunday.
LOL…
Hey, Glass Jaw Rick DiPietro has been activated by the Islanders. Good thing he left BU before the NHL figured out that he can’t play.
Well go big blue then but point was it is not officially over until the game start wrapping up this weekend but thanks for the correction scott and great job with the blog this year. This is easily the best hockey blog in HE whic I think even the trolls will agree with.
“Maybe BU could claim a moral victory for a very young team if they don’t get eliminated until Sunday.
LOL… “
Thank you Nick Papagiorgio
I knew it was going to be a bad night when Northeastern’s mascot was on the ice and Rhett was not even in the house.
It looks like even Rhett knew this team was a loser before it officially lost to NU.