By Scott McLaughlin/DFP Staff
(1) Boston College vs. (8) University of Massachusetts
The Eagles are 10-1-1 in their last 12. The Minutemen are 0-9-3. If you really need to know any more than that, BC ranks first in offense (3.85 goals per game), defense (2.24 goals-against average) and special teams (+24 net). UMass ranks seventh (2.58), ninth (3.45) and ninth (-16) in those same categories. All that said, the Minutemen were at least competitive against the Eagles two weekends, as BC squeaked out a pair of one-goal wins. In fact, UMass’ last eight games have all been decided by a goal or less. Still, I fully expect the Eagles to take care of business and sweep the Minutemen out of the playoffs for the second year in a row.
(2) University of New Hampshire vs. (7) University of Vermont
This is also a rematch from a season ago. And much like last year, neither team is playing all that great right now. The Wildcats stumbled to a 2-4-2 finish that dropped them out of first, while the Catamounts went 2-3-3 over their final eight. UNH took three of four points from Vermont when they met three weekends ago, though. And the Wildcats hold a decisive advantage in offense (3.50 GPG to 2.29), defense (2.56 GAA to 3.21) and special teams (+4 net to -14). Nothing ever comes easy for UNH in the postseason, however, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Catamounts make a series of it or even pull off a repeat of last year’s upset.
Prediction: UNH in three
(3) Boston University vs. (6) Northeastern University
It might not seem like it because of the two Beanpot losses in the middle, but the Terriers were one of the hottest teams in the stretch run of Hockey East play. They went 8-1-2 in their final 11 league games. The only loss came against none other than Northeastern in Saturday’s regular-season finale. The Huskies started the semester 6-2-3 in conference play, but went 1-2-1 over the final two weekends. Regardless, these are two evenly matched teams. BU holds a slight edge in offense (2.92 GPG to 2.74) and special teams (+3 net to -1) and Northeastern has a narrow lead in defense (2.59 GAA to 2.81). All three meetings this season have been decided by a single goal, so it should be a great series. I could see it going either way, but I’ll give BU the edge since it’s at Agganis.
Prediction: BU in three
(4) Merrimack College vs. (5) University of Maine
This is definitely the hardest series to predict, not just because it’s the 4-5 matchup, but also because these two teams are hard to get an accurate read on right now. The Warriors started this semester 10-1-0 in league play, but then they got outscored 11-1 in two losses at Maine and split the final weekend of the season against lowly Providence College. The Black Bears, on the other hand, started the semester just 2-5-2 before righting the ship and finishing with a seven-game unbeaten streak. The polar opposite of BU-Northeastern, all three meetings between these two were decided by four goals or more. I have literally no idea at all what to expect in this series, so I had my roommate make my prediction for me by picking results out of a hat.
Prediction: Maine in two
Question. I just read the new Bracketology posted on the USCHO site. They have BU being eliminated from qualifying for the NCAA tournament along with Rensselaer. Since BU has a PWR of 14 and Colorado College (the team one spot ahead of BU) has a PWR of 15 and Northeastern is not a Team Under Consideration, does that mean that the only way for BU to qualify for the NCAA tournament is to win the Hockey East?
I don’t get the Pairwise so some clarification would be nice. Thanks.
No problem, Dave. The PWR is very tough to predict, but BU can still make NCAAs without winning Hockey East. You’re right that Northeastern not being a TUC means this series can’t help them as much as a series against Maine, but it can still help them. Wins always help, just some more than others.
Also, keep in mind that if BU gets to the Garden, whoever they play in the semis will be a TUC, whether it’s UNH, Merrimack or Maine.
And there’s always the possibility of other bubble teams losing this weekend.
If I had to guess, I’d say BU needs to get to the HE championship game to make NCAAs. I think winning this weekend’s series and then winning a game at the Garden would be enough to get them in, but obviously the only way for BU to guarantee itself a spot is to win the title.
Thanks a lot Scott!
With BU now in a tie for eighteenth, and the ONLY OOC team above them they hold a tie breaker against Western Michigan, particularly with RPI & the teams around BU holding head to head & other tie-breakers, even with teams above them losing, BU can ONLY get an at-large MAKING the final, and even then an awful lot of things have to fall into place for them. BU needs Maine to lose to Merrimack. While BU has owned Maine and UNH this yr, that really doesnt help much because the two teams in HE two teams in HE who are making tourney REGARDLESS, BC & Merrimack, have TIE-BREAKER over BU so this is one of the cases where we need chalk, with the exception of Wisconsin (who we have the opening Win over) & Notre Dame, but the problem is even if Irish are upset, they will likely only fall to at worst fourteen, and we cannot get to fourteen. Best case without us winning HE is likely a fifteen, and the only team we win a fifteen tie with is UNH, who it is almost possible to have fall there, Western Michigan, and Wisconsin, who likely would be around 14-15 if they were to win two rds of their tourney, but if they win their tourney, then its moot cuz they get an AQ making us need to move up yet another notch to get an at-large. The good thing about PWR is that math geeks like me can run every plausible scenario, the bad thing is that how a team plays down the stretch does not count any more than early season or mid season, & while we may have been last D1 team to lose a game, in PWR you are much better off winning and losing to a quality team than having two ties against same team, and we seemingly have tied everybody except the TOP, and BC losses along with a barely losing record v merrimack (1-0-2) can help us whereas our winning record v UNH cant do much for us UNLESS we were tied alone in fifteen with UNH, & i have not been able to make that happen with every scenario I have tried.
Just one correction, maaahty. Ties in the PWR are broken by RPI, not head-to-head records or head-to-head comparisons.