By Scott McLaughlin/DFP Staff
Now that there are three weekends left in the regular season and everyone has six conference games remaining, it’s time to start looking at the playoff picture. Luckily for my mathematically challenged brain, this year’s playoff picture is much clearer than last year’s, when BU could’ve finished anywhere from third to ninth entering the last weekend of the season and anywhere from third to eighth entering the final game.
BU’s options are already more limited than that this year. The Terriers currently sit in fourth with 27 points. They can still finish first and win the regular season title. But given the fact that BC (32 points) and Merrimack (29 points) are a combined 23-2-0 this semester and both own the tiebreaker against BU, that seems highly unlikely. It wouldn’t be totally surprising to see the Terriers catch UNH (32 points) and finish third since BU has a much easier schedule and owns the tiebreaker.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Terriers can finish no worse than sixth. UMass currently sits in seventh with 15 points, but even if the Minutemen won out and BU lost the rest of its games, UMass would only tie BU. And since the Terriers won the season series, they’d be the six seed.
As I mentioned, BU finishing first is unlikely, so the main focus for the Terriers and their fans should be finishing in the top four and getting home ice for the quarterfinals. BU is currently five points ahead of fifth-place Maine and six ahead of sixth-place Northeastern.
That means the Terriers need to grab seven of a possible 12 points down the stretch to clinch home ice. If BU does that and Maine wins out, they end up tied and the Terriers own the tiebreaker. If Northeastern wins out, including sweeping BU the last weekend of the season, the Terriers would still end up one point ahead of the Huskies as long as they grab those seven points before that weekend.
All right, now that we’ve gone through what BU needs to do, let’s take a look at what I think the final standings will look like. Here are the current standings (taking tiebreakers into account):
1. UNH – 32 points
2. BC – 32 points
3. Merrimack – 29 points
4. BU – 27 points
5. Maine – 22 points
6. Northeastern – 21 points
7. UMass – 15 points
8. Vermont – 14 points
9. Providence – 12 points
10. UMass-Lowell – 6 points
Let’s go weekend by weekend, starting with Friday night.
Feb. 18/19
UNH at Vermont
After a terrible start, Vermont has posted a much-improved 5-7-1 record this semester. UNH has come back to earth a bit, going 7-5-0 since the break. UNH is still the vastly superior team, but because the series is at Gutterson, I’ll give UVM a point.
Result: UNH takes three of four
BC vs. Northeastern home-and-home
Northeastern has the third best record of any Hockey East team this semester at 7-3-2. BC has the second best at 11-1-0. This will be the second and third meetings between these two in six days, following BC’s thrilling 7-6 overtime win in the Beanpot final. I think the Huskies will continue to play the Eagles tough and find a way to grab a point. Plus, BC’s due for a tie — it hasn’t had one yet this year.
Result: BC takes three of four
Merrimack vs. UMass home-and-home
Given Merrimack’s 12-1-0 record this semester, UMass’ 3-9-2 mark and the fact that the Warriors beat the Minutemen 11-2 a couple weekends ago, I don’t see any way Merrimack doesn’t sweep.
Result: Merrimack sweeps
BU vs. Providence home-and-home
I know some bad Providence teams have given BU trouble in the last couple years, but I don’t see that happening again. The Friars haven’t won a conference game since Nov. 5 and I think Monday’s loss to Harvard will be a wake-up call for the Terriers, who know these last six games are pretty much must-wins if they want to make NCAAs without having to win the conference tournament.
Result: BU sweeps
Maine at UMass-Lowell
The Black Bears are just 5-6-1 this semester, but UMass-Lowell is just 1-13-0 in conference play since Nov. 6.
Result: Maine sweeps
That gives us these standings after this weekend (again, tiebreakers are accounted for):
1. UNH – 35 points
2. BC – 35 points
3. Merrimack – 33 points
4. BU – 31 points
5. Maine – 26 points
6. Northeastern – 22 points
7. Vermont – 15 points
8. UMass – 15 points
9. Providence – 12 points
10. UMass-Lowell – 6 points
Feb. 25/26
UNH vs. Northeastern home-and-home
Northeastern goalie Chris Rawlings already has four shutouts this semester. I think he steals a game or two for the Huskies down the stretch, including one in this series.
Result: Split
BC vs. UMass home-and-home
One of the hottest vs. one of the coldest. I’d be surprised if UMass finds a way to get a point.
Result: BC sweeps
Merrimack at Maine
Merrimack is playing much better than Maine right now, but Alfond is a tough place to play. I think the Black Bears force a tie one of these nights.
Result: Merrimack takes three of four
Vermont at BU
Again, I know BU has had trouble with Vermont in the past. But I can’t help but think back to Jan. 9 when the Terriers played awful at Gutterson and still won. Simply put, they’re a much better team that should sweep this series. Of course, if they have that mindset, they probably won’t. I don’t think they will, though.
Result: BU sweeps
Providence vs. UMass-Lowell home-and-home
Two bad teams. This has split written all over it.
Result: Split
So here are my standings after the weekend of Feb. 25/26:
1. BC – 39 points
2. UNH – 37 points
3. Merrimack – 36 points
4. BU – 35 points
5. Maine – 27 points
6. Northeastern – 24 points
7. Vermont – 15 points
8. UMass – 15 points
9. Providence – 14 points
10. UMass-Lowell – 8 points
March 4/5
BC vs. UNH home-and-home
I think BC wins at home Friday to clinch first and UNH, with more on the line, wins at home Saturday.
Result: Split
Merrimack vs. Providence home-and-home
No reason Merrimack shouldn’t sweep.
Result: Merrimack sweeps
BU vs. Northeastern home-and-home
I think these teams are much more equal than their records indicate. Should be a hard-fought series, as both teams will still be jockeying for position.
Result: Split
Maine at UMass
Maine will only need two points to clinch fifth, which isn’t really a key position anyway. UMass will be fighting for its playoff life. I think the Minutemen play with desperation and find a way to grab two points at home.
Result: Split
UMass-Lowell at Vermont
Vermont rebounds strong from the series against BU and locks up a playoff spot.
Result: Vermont sweeps
So that gives us these final standings:
1. BC – 41 points
2. Merrimack – 40 points
3. UNH – 39 points
4. BU – 37 points
5. Maine – 29 points
6. Northeastern – 26 points
7. Vermont – 19 points
8. UMass – 17 points
9. Providence – 14 points
10. UMass-Lowell – 8 points
That means the Terriers would host Maine in the quarterfinals. Between Maine and Northeastern, the two most likely first-round opponents for BU, I’d have to think the Terriers and their fans would prefer Maine. Northeastern is playing better right now and Rawlings has the ability to steal a short series. The Black Bears have had goaltending problems all year and need one of those goalies to catch fire if they want to make any sort of postseason run. I don’t see it happening.
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