By Sam Dykstra/DFP Staff
As they close out their regular season this weekend, it’s easy to understand that the immediate attention of the Terriers and their fans is paid to how this weekend’s set against Northeastern will affect the final shakeup of the Hockey East standings before the conference tournament starts next weekend. But there is still the possibility of the even bigger prize at stake – an NCAA tournament at-large bid – that could be closer at hand given at how the weekend plays itself out across the nation.
BU, which is tied for 15th in the all-important PairWise Rankings, would be the last team into the 16-team tournament if the season were to end today and all of the current conference leaders were to win their respective conference tourneys thanks to the RPI tie-breaker.
However, there’s still plenty of hockey to be played as some teams, like BU, close out their regular schedules while others begin their conference tournaments or get a rest via a tourney bye. Mind you, Here’s a look at the resumes and weekend slates for some of the teams close to the NCAA bubble. (Note: TUCs are teams with an RPI higher than .5000, and all rankings used here are from the PairWise unless otherwise specified.)
T-11 University of Minnesota-Duluth
Overall Record: 19-8-6
RPI: .5508 (9th in the nation)
Record vs. Teams under Consideration: 10-8-5
What’s on tap: The Bulldogs finish out their regular season with a prime opportunity to move up to a potential No. 2 seed in the tournament as they take on University of Nebraska-Omaha (ranked 8th in PWR, 12th in both national polls) for two games at home on Friday and Saturday. Two wins over a team that is seems to be comfortably locked into an NCAA bid could not only improve their record against TUCs but could also vault their RPI into the top eight. That being said, three points or fewer could keep them right at a third seed or even lower, depending on how the teams below them perform. (Minnesota-Duluth and Nebraska-Omaha are separated by just a point for third in the WCHA standings, adding extra intrigue to the weekend series.)
T-11 University of New Hampshire
Overall: 19-7-6
RPI: .5502 (10)
Record vs. TUC: 8-6-1
What’s on tap: The Wildcats home-and-home with Boston College (3rd in the PWR, 2nd in the polls) could have many of the same ramifications as the Minnesota-Duluth/Nebraska-Omaha series. UNH holds a one-point lead over BC for the top spot in Hockey East, and that will most likely dominate the thoughts and minds of those on the ice. But an Eagles sweep would all but guarantee them one of the four No. 1 seeds in the national tournament (and also move UNH down closer to the bubble) while four points for the Wildcats could jump them up to the top eight. A split or three points for either side would probably only solidify the current positions for either side. For what it’s worth, the Wildcats beat the Eagles 2-1 at Conte Forum in their only previous matchup back on Nov. 5.
13 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Overall: 19-10-5
RPI: .5322 (15)
Record vs. TUC: 7-6-4
What’s on tap: The Engineers, who finished fifth in the ECAC standings, open their conference tournament with a three-game series at home against unranked Colgate. Although their opponent isn’t a TUC, any loss this weekend could adversely affect the team’s RPI because conference tournament games count just like regular-season games in the eyes of the NCAA selection process. With their RPI – sorry if that’s confusing – already as low as 15th in the nation, the Engineers can ill afford it to drop any further.
14 Colorado College
Overall: 18-15-3
RPI: .5268 (18)
Record vs. TUC: 13-15-3
What’s on tap: CC will head to Wisconsin for two games against the Badgers this weekend, and it could not have faced Bucky at a better time. Wisconsin, a team that was as high as 15th back on Valentine’s Day, has dropped to 21st in the PWR due to a horrid 0-5-1 record in its last six contests. The Tigers certainly have the momentum advantage; they are coming off a three-point weekend against Minnesota-Duluth. It’s quite possible that they could move to .500 against TUCs, a feat none of the teams below them can claim right now.
T-15 Boston University
Overall: 17-9-8
RPI: .5360 (13)
Record vs. TUC: 5-7-5
What’s on tap: The thought process in the BU locker room this weekend has to be “Just win, baby.” Northeastern is not a TUC, and even two wins wouldn’t vastly improve the Terriers’ resume all that much, other than giving them a little extra RPI boost that would keep them on the right side of the bubble as their regular season comes to a close. The best-case scenario could be that BU earns three points from the Huskies and earn the fourth seed in the HE tourney, meaning they’d play Maine in the first round in a game between two TUCs that could greatly improve the resume of the winner.
T-15 University of Maine
Overall: 16-10-6
RPI: .5329 (14)
Record vs. TUC: 6-8-2
What’s on tap: The Black Bears are in a similar situation to the Terriers in that they face a lower conference foe in University of Massachusetts-Amherst, albeit in this case those two games both come on the road. They need to win, but that’s more to maintain their spot on the bubble than move up (unless of course any of the above teams have a disastrous weekend). Maine may be a slightly more dangerous situation than BU, however, when you consider that UMass will be fighting to continue its season while Northeastern has already locked up the sixth seed. However if goalie Dan Sullivan (one GA in his last four starts) can continue to play like he has for the last four games of Maine’s five-game winning streak, the Black Bears shouldn’t have much of a problem dismissing the Minutemen.
T-15 Dartmouth College
Overall: 16-10-3
RPI: .5308 (16)
Record vs. TUC: 6-7-2
What’s on tap: Dartmouth has the weekend off, thanks to the first-round bye that comes with being the third seed in the ECAC tournament. It will play the winner of the series between sixth-seeded Princeton University 11th-seeded St. Lawrence University next weekend. Depending on its goals, the Big Green can either hope to face a potential-builder in Princeton, who stands a TUC at 25th in the PWR, or a lesser opponent in St. Lawrence that would better allow it to advance in the conference tournament.
18 Western Michigan University
Overall: 16-10-10
RPI: .5289 (17)
Record vs. TUC: 5-7-4
What’s on tap: The Broncos are off this weekend as they prepare to face in-state foe Ferris State University (tied for 22nd in the PWR) in the CCHA quarters next week, and they could certainly use a break. A 2-0 win over No. T-9 University of Notre Dame last Saturday was their first win in their last six games, all against TUCs, with a 1-4-1 record over that span. WMU was 0-1-1 against FSU in their two meetings this season, both coming at the Bulldogs’ home.
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