By Sam Dykstra/DFP StaffThe immediate gut reaction to BU’s 5-4 loss to Harvard in Monday night’s Beanpot consolation game is “Just how long has it been since the Terriers finished fourth in what some have called the BU Invitational?” (It’s been 31 years since that’s happened, but there’s plenty about that in the game recap and grades on this site.)Once that wears off – if it hasn’t already for some BU fans – the second reaction should concern what the loss to a team that’s ranked lower than 50 on the RPI rankings means for the Terriers NCAA tournament hopes.BU coach Jack Parker said it himself, “I think it is a big loss for us. I think it is a loss to an unranked team. It is a loss that we have to get many more games over 500, and that just made it difficult to do that. As far as the NCAA Tournament selection process is concerned this is a huge loss for us.” Before the loss, the Terriers were squarely on the bubble for the 16-team tournament, and they remain there despite the loss to Harvard. But the road to Manchester, Bridgeport, St. Louis or Green Bay (the locations of the four NCAA regionals this spring) may be a little bumpier now than it was at 4:30 Monday afternoon.Before we lay out BU’s NCAA resume, here’s a couple of notes you should know. Unlike our usual stories, all rankings used here will be from the PairWise Rankings, a system that is very similar to the one used by the NCAA selection committee. That system ranks teams based on Ratings Point Index (RPI), record vs. teams under consideration (teams with RPIs of higher than .500), head-to-head games and common opponents.With that in mind, let’s look at BU’s NCAA resume.No. 17(T) Boston University (14-9-7)RPI: .5326Individual Records vs. TUC:No. 2 BC 0-4-0No. 4 Merrimack 0-1-2No. 9UNH 2-1-0No. 12 Notre Dame 1-0-1No. 14 RPI 0-1-0No. 15 Wisconsin 1-0-0No. 19 Maine 1-0-2Overall Record vs. TUC 5-7-5Bad losses:Brown, 6-1 on Jan. 1 (Shillelagh Tournament)Harvard, 5-4 on Feb. 14 (Beanpot consolation)So with that in mind, let’s move onto teams that will be battling out for the final at-large spots in the tournament as the 14th and 15th seeds (assuming the winner of the Atlantic Hockey Conference takes the 16th spot). It looks like if the season ended BU would battle Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, University of Wisconsin, Western Michigan University and Colorado College for those positions. Here’s how those teams have performed in the crucial PairWise statistics and how exactly that would stack up against the Terriers.No. 14 RPI (18-8-4)RPI: .5422Record vs. TUC: 7-5-2Head-to-head with BU: 1-0-0COP (Northeastern, Harvard, Brown): 3-1-1, BU 2-2-1How they match up with the Terriers: The Engineers comfortably beat the Terriers in each category. With only one regular-season game against a TUC left (Princeton) and none against common opponents, it’s safe to say that the Engineers would take a spot over the Terriers with ease. Had the Terriers defeated Harvard Monday night, the two teams’ records against common opponents would have been equal, and that could have given the Terriers at least something to cling to against the Engineers.No. 15(T) Wisconsin (19-10-3)RPI: .5407Record vs. TUC: 5-10-3Head-to-head with BU: 0-1-0COP (UMass): 2-0-0, BU 2-0-1How they match up with the Terriers: On the surface, the BU vs. Wisconsin debate could go either way. The Badgers lead in RPI and records against the two teams’ only common opponent (two wins in two games looks a lot better than two wins in three games.) The Terriers have the advantage in records against TUC and won the only game between the two teams. However, the tie-breaker here is RPI, according to the PairWise rules, and that gives the nod to the Badgers.No. 15(T) Western Michigan (15-7-10)RPI: .5359Record vs. TUC: 4-4-4No head-to-head games with BUCOP (Notre Dame): 0-1-1, BU 1-0-1How they match up against the Terriers: The Broncos win the battles for RPI and record against TUC with BU winning records against the team’s only common opponent in Notre Dame. That would seemingly give Western Michigan the edge. But luckily for BU, there is still plenty of hockey left to be played. The Broncos have four games remaining, and they’re all against TUCs (two on the road against Michigan, a home-and-home with Notre Dame). If the Broncos don’t win any of those contests, the Terriers could take the advantage both in that category and overall. For what it’s worth, Western Michigan has yet to play Michigan this season and has not defeated the Fighting Irish in two tries.No. 17(T) Colorado College (17-14-1)RPI: .5293Record vs. TUC: 11-14-1No head-to-head games with BUCOP (RPI): 1-0-1, BU 0-1-0How they match up against the Terriers: The Tigers (record vs. TUC, record vs. common opponents) beat out the Terriers (RPI) 2-1 in the PairWise categories. This is proof that the loss to RPI not only hurt BU against the Engineers but also against Colorado College. Had the Terriers defeated the Engineers on the road, they would have taken the lead over Colorado College, who has held its own more or less despite playing the fifth-toughest schedule in the nation this season. Luckily for BU though, the Tigers loses to No. 19 Ferris State, a team BU beats out, according to the PairWise parameters (Ferris State has better records against TUCs and common opponents). That leaves both teams tied at No. 17 in the PairWise, meaning BU wins out because of the RPI tie-breaker.